Experts favor China's zero-Covid policy

BEIJING: The world has been fighting the Covid-19 pandemic for two years and the initial fear of the unknown virus has now morphed into yearning for a return to normalcy. That is why The Lancet paper indicating that the end of the pandemic is near picked up steam and got scientists into a heated debate about the possibility of China ending the epidemic this year.

Yet the end of the pandemic seems an unlikely scenario when the more contagious coronavirus variant Omicron has driven cases in the United States and Europe and other countries to historic highs. While other parts of the world look toward the end of the pandemic, renowned Chinese epidemiologists suggested the country to "wait and see." As many uncertainties still lurk on the road to reopening, such as damage from the new variant, the possibility of other new variants and the country's medical capacity to handle a possible wave, scientists believe sticking to the current dynamic zero-Covid policy remains China's best option.

It's a gamble, we cannot afford to lose, they said.

"By March 2022, a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the Omicron variant," wrote Christopher Murray, director of the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in The Lancet on January 19.

"After the Omicron wave, Covid-19 will return but the pandemic will not," he said in the January 19 article, suggesting it will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage.

This comment, which coincides with WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus' previous remarks that 2022 will be the last year of the Covid-19 pandemic, brings a ray of light into the darkness that has muffled the world for two years. Part of the optimism came from people's perception of Omicron, a more contagious but milder variant. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro even called it a "welcome" variant, Reuters reported on January 12.

In the face of Omicron, our focus must be on reducing transmissions and increasing vaccine coverage, Tarik Jasarevic, WHO spokesman, told the Global Times in an email on Monday. He noted that while Omicron causes less severe illness than Delta does, it remains a dangerous virus, particularly for the unvaccinated.

The goal by mid-2022 must be for every country to vaccinate 70 percent of its population. "We can end the acute phase of the pandemic if we vaccinate populations, starting with those most at risk," Jasarevic said.

Chen Xi, an associated professor of public health at Yale University, told the Global Times that he agrees with the forecast made by The Lancet. He predicted that the pandemic could end in March but with a necessary premise that there's no new variant.

Source: TheManila Times