Tensions in Ukraine

THE United States, NATO and Russia appear to be the main protagonists in what many consider now as just a major diplomatic squabble, but may eventually escalate into a shooting war in Ukraine and in the whole of Europe.

Yet Ukraine seems to be just a bystander in the talks, even as this hapless country is in danger of becoming the battlefield in case diplomatic efforts fail. Indeed, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Selensky, is being consulted and briefed by President Biden, who assured the former that no agreement would be reached without his consent.

A Cambodian proverb illustrates the pitiable situation of Ukraine, an independent country that gained its independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union: "When elephants fight, the ants get killed."

The trouble in Ukraine started in 2014, when the Russian army entered Ukraine with hardly any resistance from the Ukrainian army or the local population, occupied Crimea, and subsequently annexed it to Russia. Yuval Noah Harare, in his latest book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, observed that "with its annexation of Crimea, Russia gained strategically vital territory, struck fear into its neighbors and established itself as a world power."

Russia's success in Crimea must have emboldened it to force Ukraine not to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia has now positioned around 100,000 troops, tanks, heavy artillery, medical facilities and personnel in Ukraine's eastern and southern borders. To the United States and its NATO allies, the massing of troops and heavy military equipment along the eastern border of Ukraine indicates a probable invasion.

Russia's President Putin asserts that he has no intention to invade Ukraine. Recently, he put forward his main demands, i.e., "halt NATO's eastern enlargement; a permanent freeze on further expansion of the alliances and military infrastructure; end military assistance to Ukraine; and ban intermediate range missiles in Europe."

Russia must consider Ukraine as most vital to its national security. Russia did not vehemently object to the membership in NATO of other countries that were formerly part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). The first to join NATO in 1999 were the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. In 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia were admitted as NATO members, and in 2009, Albania and Croatia joined the alliance.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has bluntly called these Russian demands as "non-starters." This statement from the US does not augur well for the Ukrainian situation to be successfully solved through diplomacy.

Many analysts say that "if these threats cannot be addressed diplomatically, the Kremlin would have to resort to a military option." In the ongoing conflict, Russia seems to have the upper hand. It has its military might already in the eastern border of Ukraine, just awaiting the order of President Putin to enter the country.

In terms of military strength, Russia has definitely the edge. It has the fifth biggest military in the world, with over 1 million active personnel and 2 million in reserve. In contrast, Ukraine has only around 280,000 soldiers with armaments being sourced now with the military assistance of the United States, Great Britain and other European NATO countries.

The United States, still smarting from its inglorious defeat in Afghanistan, said it is not sending ground troops to Ukraine in case of war even as around 8,000 US military personnel have already been put on alert status for possible engagement in Europe.

The involvement of NATO in an open war in Ukraine is even more doubtful as Article 5 of the treaty may not yet apply in case of attack by another country. The country of Ukraine is not yet "an Ally" under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This article provides that "if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked."

This Article 5 of the NATO treaty was invoked only once. In the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attack, NATO declared that another country orchestrated the attack. Thus, Article 5 was invoked.

With Ukraine not yet an "Ally," as it has yet to apply and be admitted into the alliance, it is doubtful whether NATO has any legal or treaty obligation to extend military assistance to Ukraine in case of a Russian attack.

Even without invoking Article 5 of the NATO treaty, however, the alliance intervened in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995 by bombing and strafing the Serb positions in Sarajevo. In 1999, NATO likewise launched air attacks on Serbian military positions in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo in order to deter further a "new wave of ethnic cleansing against the Kosovar Albanians."

Yuval Noah Harare, commenting on the military adventures of Russia, noted that the Russian elites are "probably well aware of the real costs and benefits of its military adventures, which is why it has so far been very careful not to escalate them."

According to Harare, Russia has been following the schoolyard bully principle: "Pick on the weakest kid and don't beat him up too much, lest the teacher intervene."

I hope that the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine will be resolved through diplomacy in order to avert war in Europe, whose effects and ramifications will surely be felt in all countries. Hopefully, what Putin is doing in Ukraine is akin to just "bullying a weak kid in the schoolyard."

Email: labormattersph@gmail.com

Source: TheManila Times