One in a million

WITH 80 billion people on the planet, being one in a million is still a significant or worthy classification, compliment or distinction — just diminished in stature. So, make that one in a billion to be a rarity.

Still, being one in a million is nothing to sneeze at and, in a warped way, when applied to a visa applicant whose petition or application remains in processing limbo.

Take Australia for example.

Government statistics and news reports (citing official sources) show that the Department of Home Affairs has "close to a million applications across several visa categories, the problem stemming from the impact of the Covid-19 border closure."

Andrew McKellar, CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), confirms that "the total number of skilled temporary visa holders that were struck in Australia in 2014 is 195,000; in 2022, the number of temporary visa holders on the protracted processing time span is 96,000."

For partner/spouse visas, Australia has increased the number of places for this category in its 2020-2021 program to 72,300 reflecting most of the 77,300 overall allocation for the family stream.

Applicants in the skilled stream categories get the bulk of the 160,000 annual visa allocation, with the breakdown as follows: employer sponsored, 22,000; skilled independent, 6,500; regional, 11,200; state/territory nominated, 11,200; business innovation and investment program, 13,500; global talent, 15,000; distinguished talent, 200, for a total of 79,600.

As for processing times, partner visas will take up to 29 months. For the skilled visa, up to 51 months.

Australia intends to address the visa backlog with the 60,000 permanent visa applications of skilled worker visa applications given first priority to help the federal government address the workforce shortages brought about by the pandemic and the ensuing border closures.

Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil also confirmed the DHA's plan to prioritize skilled applicants from offshore with a focus on health, education and aged care.

Based on recent government figures, the current visa backlog is 961,016 visa applications across all categories with some 560,187 lodged by people outside Australia.

The total includes 57,906 skilled workers seeking permanent visas and 13,806 offshore visa applicants seeking temporary visas.

On the other hand, O'Neil emphasized that skilled workers who may be among those coming by boat illegally should not "think that [they] are going to be able to make a life in Australia."

"You will be turned back," O'Neil emphasized.

For the legal immigrants, the Australian Chamber of Commerce has a reassuring intent: the ACC calls for an expansion of the annual migration program "to 200,000 people to help secure the country's economic pathway out of the pandemic."

The same trend is seen with the prioritization of immigrant visa applicants in the US.

Without revising focus on family reunification as enshrined in the Immigration Act of 1990, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services, the National Visa Center and the US embassy in Manila are also prioritizing the issuance of visas to employment-based applicants.

From March to June, the US embassy in Manila issued more visas to Employment-based than Family-preference applicants (see Table 1).

TABLE 1

The State Department's Visa Statistics also show the number or permanent residency grants to employment-based categories increase the total (visas issued at the Manila embassy and those granted by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services to 3,138 in April; 1,019 in May; and 1,145 in June.

Backlog eases up somewhat

The National Visa Center's backlog report for August shows a reduction in the number of documentarily qualified applicants on the NVC database.

In April 2021, the total number of DQ applicants was 494,289. July saw the highest number at 566,384, gradually tapering to 449,483 in May and then 421,688 this month.

Visa issuance is reflective of how many immigrant visa appointment places the embassy has within the month. Starting from 18,979 visas issued in April 2021, visa issuance peaked in July of that year at 34,408. For August, the visas issued worldwide barely reached 33,000.

Meanwhile, the number of DQ applicants still with NVC is 388,780 in August. Assuming a scenario of 30,000 visas issued every month, it will take 13 months to clear up the remaining DQ applicants (not counting cases that are added on a monthly basis as immigrant visa applicants complete their visa processing with the Consular Electronic Application Center (CEAC).

Where will new cases come from?

The NVC provides a time frame from which we can glean answers.

When a petition is approved from the USCIS level, the case is forwarded to NVC.

How long is the USCIS taking to process cases?

When filing a petition for a relative, the file is first sent to a USCIS lockbox facility. After assessing for completeness, the petition is then sent to the service center with jurisdiction over the petitioner's place of residence.

As of Aug. 12, 2022, the USCIS California Service Center (where majority of petitions for relatives are sent) shows that a petition for an over 21 unmarried son/daughter (F1 category) will take 5 years and 6 months to be approved. The F3 and F4 have the longest waiting period — 9.9 and 11.9 years, respectively.

Only after approval would the petition be sent to NVC either for archiving or processing.

When the priority date of an application is within the processing time as published in the Visa Bulletin report, a visa applicant may start processing after receipt of his/her case number and invoice identification number.

For September, the visa dates show the dates by which applicants from the Philippines may start processing their visa applications with CEAC.

These dates are officially labeled, final action dates for family-sponsored preference cases (interview dates) and dates for filing family-sponsored visa applications (processing dates).

The State Department now publishes these two dates to allow applicants sufficient time to prepare and obtain documents required to complete the processing until such time that their priority dates become current. At that time, visas are already available.

Getting an interview spot is not assured, given the backlog as well as the rise and fall of Covid-19 cases in the Philippines — and the US (see Table 2).

TABLE 2

Only after paying the fees, completing the forms and uploading the civil documents could an applicant submit the case for review. It takes NVC an average of three months to review a case. Multiply that by the number of cases NVC has and that would provide a window as to why and when a case may be added to the backlog.

As earlier mentioned, completion of case processing with CEAC and a priority date becoming current would not result in getting an interview schedule at the Embassy.

Processing dates have not moved since April 2022. Interview dates remained the same since September 2021. This means DQ applicants whose priority dates become current still cannot be scheduled for interview (despite visas already available) because there are no appointment dates to set at the US embassy due to the pandemic, staffing shortage and insufficient embassy facilities.

As of June 30, 2022 (the latest data from the embassy website) the Manila consular post shows the date and month of the DQ cases received from NVC that are being scheduled for interview.

"As of June 30, 2022, most IR visa cases received in April 2022. Most K visa cases received in May 2022. Most current employment-based cases received in April 2022. Most current family preference cases approved for expedited processing received in March 2021."

For immigrant visa applicants whose petitions are with the USCIS and NVC/CEAC, the good news is that you are not one in a million.

Ordinarily before the pandemic, US embassies and consular posts worldwide issued anywhere from 36,000 to 46,000 immigrant visas. Processing from NVC to the embassy averaged a year.

These days, being part of the ordinary is the rarity.

Source: TheManila Times